
Post
172K. Markets were expecting 85K.
US May nonfarm payrolls more than doubled the consensus forecast. March and April were both revised higher, with combined upward revisions of +93K, flipping months of downward revisions in a single print.
Bond markets repriced within minutes:
· 2Y yields +5.6bps to 4.105%
· 10Y yields +4.7bps to 4.524%
This is Kevin Warsh's first NFP as Fed Chair. He was confirmed last month and faces his first FOMC meeting June 16-17. He inherited an Iran-driven oil shock already pushing inflation higher. A labor market this strong gives him even less room to cut.
Futures markets now price a December rate hike at roughly 50%, with January at around 60%. Markets are betting the Fed's next move is up, not down.
Bitcoin had already absorbed a brutal PPI shock in April, with BTC briefly falling below $80K as 6% producer inflation crushed rate cut bets. Today's jobs print lands on an already fragile market. Tighter-for-longer means less liquidity, a stronger dollar, and a higher cost of holding risk assets.
Strong jobs, delayed cuts, BTC under pressure. Are you buying the dip or waiting it out?
#NFPBlowout172K
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