Innlegg

April 2026 CPI came in at +3.8% YoY (core +2.8%), with the monthly print at +0.6% — the highest annual rate since May 2023. May 2026 CPI (not yet released as of June 9) is forecast to jump to ~4.2% YoY, driven by Iran-conflict energy pass-through feeding into fuel and transportation costs. Fed minutes from May explicitly flagged a potential rate hike if inflation stays elevated. That was also Powell's last FOMC meeting. BTC at $61.2K and ETH at $1,625 are already priced for "no cuts in 2026" after Goldman's revision. A May CPI print of 4.2%+ shifts the conversation from "cuts delayed" to "hike on the table" — which is a meaningfully different regime for risk assets. The market hasn't fully priced hike risk, which means the downside surprise on a hot print could be sharper than the upside on a cool one. If May CPI prints above 4%, do you think the Fed actually hikes, or just holds longer? Just sharing my thoughts. Not financial advice. DYOR. #MayCPIHikeWatch #GoldmanDelays2027Cuts #OKXOrbit