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5.22 $ETH Evening Market Update Just took another look at the market, and it’s still in that barely-alive state, really makes me sleepy. This kind of sideways trading is the worst—neither up nor down. If you go long, it slowly dips; if you go short, it suddenly spikes, slapping you back and forth. By the time you realize, it’s just sweeping back and forth, so I really don’t dare to trade within the range anymore. I’d rather wait for it to break out on its own. Back to Bitcoin itself: Looking at the daily chart, the bears are clearly in control. The moving averages are all pressing down from above, and the MACD has already turned bearish. What’s more frustrating is that a few days ago there was huge volume, but the candlesticks were tiny like sesame seeds—volume without price movement means heavy selling pressure above, and the bulls don’t even have the strength to push it up. So don’t expect a reversal in the big picture; any rebound is just a chance to short at a higher level. Bulls can only sneak in and out quickly to grab a small profit. The small rebound structure from earlier has already broken down in the past couple of days, so the 2144 level is now a critical threshold. For the market to mount a decent rebound, it must break through 2144 with strong volume and hold above it. Only then can we look toward 2195. If it can’t get past, everything is just a pullback within a downtrend, continuing to grind lower. Tonight, there are actually just two key moves to watch: One, if it can climb above 2125 with volume and hold, I’ll chase longs on the right side, first targeting 2157, and if that breaks, then 2198. Don’t chase without volume; it’s likely a false breakout. The other is if it breaks down through 2108 with volume, I’ll chase shorts on the right side, first eyeing the short-term support at 2102. If 2102 is smashed by a big bearish candle, don’t hesitate—next targets are 2076 down to 2055, and if it dips deeper, maybe 2021. If it just briefly probes 2102 and quickly recovers, that’s a false breakdown; if you’re short, get out, don’t hold onto the position. Anyway, there’s only this much capital now, and the key levels keep bouncing back and forth, nothing new. What’s missing is a decisive volume surge. Without volume, the pumps and dumps are just playing games, so we wait. I’d rather miss out than get slapped around in the middle. Volume usually picks up a bit around the US market open tonight; when the direction really emerges, I’ll follow the trend. Brothers, don’t rush—sideways trading tests your mindset. $ETH

5.22 $BTC Evening Market Update This market really makes you lose all your temper. Neither up nor down, just like a dead fish. If it were the weekend, I could understand—institutions resting, no liquidity, normal volatility. But this is a damn weekday, and it’s still playing dead. I really don’t know what the main players are up to—are they secretly accumulating, or preparing to bury all the bulls? No idea, but the more it acts like this, the more damn careful you have to be. I’ve been calling out the 78180 level for days. Last night, even with news of US-Iran negotiations, it didn’t break through; it just touched and softened. What does this mean? It means there’s huge resistance above. BTC alone can’t muster strength for now. Most likely, we have to wait until the US-Iran side confirms a negotiation date before funds dare to rush in. Right now, it’s tough. Look at the trend: the triangle pattern that was going well has now broken, and inside it, there’s a small M-top pattern drawn. The neckline is around 76882. Remember this: · As long as it falls below 76882 and can’t recover, this hourly M-top is confirmed. The first stop below is the 76000-75620 pit. You’ve probably heard this so much it’s like calluses on your ears. And it’s not over—if it can brake, fine; if not, we’ll see. · As long as it can hover above 76882, there’s still some breathing room and a chance to test 78180. But after so many attempts without breaking through, the bulls are nervous. If it can’t push through, a crash is likely. · For those wanting to catch a piece of the action, watch 77308. If it breaks through with volume and holds, then you can chase longs on the right side, targeting 78180-79203. If it drags and can’t break through, don’t act. · For shorts, watch 77057. If it breaks down with volume and the rebound can’t recover, then you can chase shorts on the right side. Set your stop loss properly—don’t let a spike catch you off guard. On the 4-hour chart, it still looks okay—at least a morning star formed, and the price is barely holding above the box’s midline at 77263. Bottom line: if the 4-hour close doesn’t fall below 77263, it’s not considered broken and can still oscillate. Once it breaks below and can’t recover, don’t dream—it’s likely heading to around 75000. In this trash time, honestly, watching the show is better than acting. No trading means no losses. The money in your pocket didn’t come from the wind; it’s here to fight for gains in this market, not to pay fees. Wait for it to pick a direction on its own. Whether it’s a ghost or a real player, it will show its true face eventually. Let’s not be smart for nothing—this kind of main player move is designed to punish all kinds of disobedience. $BTC

5.22 $BTC $ETH Midday Market Update BTC: That early morning spike was really nasty. Those who saw the market drop and quickly cut losses are probably crying in the bathroom now. It just happened to hit the support level, then bounced back sharply. The closing price didn’t drop at all. This is called a fake breakdown, where the market makers deliberately trigger stop losses. They push the price down to wipe out retail longs, then pull it back up. Look above, the 78180 level has been tested for the 4th time. A resistance level that’s hit repeatedly is like banging on a wall; no matter how tough the wall is, it will eventually crack. So once this level is broken, 79332 will definitely be tested. But on the other hand, the current market is just oscillating between 78180 and 76882, unable to break up or down, with all kinds of fake moves to trick you into entering. If you chase longs, it drops; if you short, it rallies. Short-term traders these days must be feeling the pain, getting hit from both sides. Wait. If it doesn’t give a direction, don’t move. If it dares to give you one, then act. If it breaks above 78180 and holds, it will head towards 79332. Whether it can take off directly is another story. If it breaks below 76882, the previous low at 76000 likely won’t hold, then it will look for a bottom around 75620. Once a new low forms, this week’s consolidation structure is invalidated, and who the hell knows how long the bottom will hold. Bulls want to step up? On the hourly chart, first hold above 77779, then look towards 78361 - 79309. If it can’t hold, nothing else matters. Bears want to act? Effectively break below 77295, if the rebound fails, chase downwards towards 76460 - 75590. Resistance above: 77779 / 78361 / 79309 Support below: 77194 / 76712 / 76000 Stop losses are a must. If you don’t use stop losses, better quit early. ETH is more sluggish, like constipated, still stuck there. The core point: If it can’t break above the resistance zone between 2144 and 2156, it’s nothing. Only when it steps firmly above this zone does it qualify to test 2195. Until then, don’t get excited; it’s all consolidation. Honestly, as long as it doesn’t drop, sideways movement is strong enough, just be patient. For those on the right side: Breakout with volume above 2146, go long, target 2167 - 2193. Set stop loss. For the bears: Volume breakdown below 2125, chase shorts on the right side. For those wanting to place limit orders on the left side to buy cheap: place longs at 2027, stop loss if it breaks below 1995. Discipline is key; one slip and you’re out. For those wanting to short from highs, watch around 2215; if it reaches there, short one lot, but if it breaks above 2246, don’t be stubborn, exit. If it pulls back and holds 2081, go long; if it breaks below 2047, exit. On the 4-hour chart, note: if 2114 is lost, look down towards 2082 - 2042. That’s all. The market is holding its breath now; whoever breaks first loses. Just wait. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

With the introduction of the ARMA bill, the U.S. government has officially upgraded to Bitcoin's number one hardcore supporter, even putting it in writing: locking up for 20 years, not selling even if the king himself comes. #BTC储备入法：ARMA法案正式提出 Previously, Trump signed an executive order forbidding the sale of confiscated coins. It sounded tough, but executive orders are like a cheater's promise—change the person and it's forgotten. Legislation is different; it welds the car doors shut, making it illegal for anyone to touch the coins for 20 years, even the president can't override it. The most impressive part is the purchase limit: 200,000 coins per year. Meanwhile, global miners barely produce about 164,000 coins annually. This means the U.S. government alone plans to absorb all newly mined coins and still needs to snatch existing supply from the market. Coins on exchanges are already at historic lows, and ETFs keep buying every day. This isn't hoarding; it's like using a pump to drain a swimming pool. What does locking up for 20 years mean? By the time your son graduates college, these coins will still be sitting in cold storage. During this period, Bitcoin will undergo four halving events, and by then, only a few coins will be mined daily across the entire network. These sealed coins effectively vanish from circulation, making the truly circulating Bitcoin possibly rarer than giant pandas. Other players aren't idle either. El Salvador invests regularly, Bhutan quietly mined 15,000 coins using hydropower, and Brazil is considering converting 5% of its foreign reserves into Bitcoin. This isn't just investment; it's a quiet collective "de-dollarization" escape. People don't say it openly, but their actions speak volumes. Once these state-level hardcore holders lock and hoard the coins on the market, everyone will realize that digital gold is even harder to manage than physical gold. Physical gold can still be mined to increase supply, but Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million; locking one means one less. Cherish the 0.00-something BTC you hold; 20 years from now, it might be harder to get than a license plate in a first-tier city. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

The 30-year US Treasury yield is at 5.20%. If you don't know, you might think it's some kind of promotional discount number, but those who know understand—this is the highest point since 2007, the year the iPhone was just released. #InterestRateHikeBackOnTheTable: US Treasury yields near a 19-year high Tonight, Waller officially takes over from Powell; the Federal Reserve has a new boss. Powell's “patient waiting” script is finally over, but the successor immediately faces a mess: inflation is still burning, oil prices keep rising, and the bond market is already voting with its feet. Inflation hasn’t gone anywhere. April CPI is 3.8%, core PCE is 3.2%, all dancing in the Fed’s face. Every time I fill up my tank, the numbers on the dashboard sting my eyes more than my fund’s net value. Prices, once up, don’t come down—just like my weight, totally unreasonable. The market is already betting on rate hikes. The CME’s rate hike probability shows more than a 50% chance of a hike by year-end, with only a 1.5% chance of a cut—that’s about the same odds as me sticking to the gym for a year. And here’s something ridiculous: Powell stepped down but didn’t leave; he’s staying on the board as a member. This isn’t retirement; it’s switching to a backseat role. Even if Waller wants to make big moves, the predecessor sitting right there watching you is suffocating. This workplace politics is more complicated than my old company’s office drama. Trump previously pushed for rate cuts, saying he’d be “disappointed” if Waller didn’t act quickly, but recently changed his tune to “let him be himself.” His flip-flopping is faster than me switching short videos. Waller is stuck between inflation, the White House, and his predecessor—no amount of money would make me want that job. Tonight, I’ll be watching one sentence closely in Waller’s statement—whether he uses hawkish language like “decisive action if necessary” on inflation. The presence or absence of the words “if necessary” could mean a difference of dozens of basis points for the bond market. Whether I hold my long bond position depends entirely on how merciful he is with his words. Enough talk, I’m going to watch the market. Tonight is destined to be an all-nighter with Waller. Where do you think his first move will target? Let’s hang out in the comments and tough it out together. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Last night’s most abstract on-chain drama — HYPE’s largest short oracle blew up and deleted their account to run away. #HYPE多空决战：最大空头爆仓删号 This guy was an early contributor to Hyperliquid, but later, for some unknown reason, he switched sides from a big bull to heavily shorting with 5x leverage. As HYPE surged past $60 to a new all-time high, his short position’s unrealized loss ballooned to $31 million. The most audacious move came next — he deposited about $36 million worth of HYPE spot into HyperLiquid to dump the market, while simultaneously adding to his short position at the $64 high, increasing it to 1.82 million tokens, with unrealized losses swelling to $26.5 million. Bro, are you shorting or doing charity? On-chain data live-streamed his collapse: two wallets manually closed positions one after another, realizing a loss of $6.99 million, withdrew the remaining USDC to Coinbase, then the X account vanished on the spot. Clean and tidy, a full-service escape. But that’s only half the story. On the other side, a16z and Grayscale are aggressively accumulating. a16z started violently building positions since mid-April, with related wallets sweeping up about 9.18 million HYPE tokens, worth $356 million, surpassing Paradigm to become the largest external HYPE holder. Grayscale is not far behind, having bought and staked 682,000 HYPE tokens in the past week, valued at about $34.9 million. Don’t forget they filed for a HYPE spot ETF back in January. Goldman Sachs is quietly rotating portfolios, selling BTC/ETH to buy HYPE. On one side, retail short sellers are losing so badly they quit the market; on the other, hundred-billion-dollar institutions are quietly buying up large amounts. The contrast is brutal. In traditional finance, you can hide your shorts, but on-chain oracles broadcast every move live across the network via tools like Onchain Lens. When you deposit HYPE to dump the market, everyone knows instantly; when you add to your short position to 1.82 million tokens at the high, the whole network watches; your liquidation price at $68.8 becomes a precise bull navigation coordinate. This isn’t trading, it’s streaking naked. The entire market’s liquidity instantly turns into weapons hunting you — bulls target your liquidation price aggressively, new funds continuously flow in to replace liquidated positions, and HYPE’s open interest rises instead of falling, nearing $2.5 billion. This isn’t a bull vs. bear battle; it’s a 21st-century on-chain gladiator arena, and the short is the one thrown in. HYPE is now at a $60+ all-time high. The bullish case is strong: Hyperliquid platform’s annual revenue is $800 million to $1 billion, surpassing Solana; RWA perpetual open interest hits a record $2.6 billion; two spot ETFs have net inflows of $54 million in the first 6 days; institutional FOMO-level accumulation is intense. But technically, RSI is dancing in overbought territory, TD Sequential gave a Combo 13 sell signal, and the overall market fear & greed index is only 28, very cold. This rally is more of a localized HYPE bull market, and once the short squeeze momentum fades, the pullback could be harsh. Personally, I think chasing longs above $60 isn’t cost-effective. If it can retrace to the $45-50 range with continued ETF inflows and Grayscale’s approval progress, that would be a more comfortable mid-to-long-term entry. On Polymarket, the probability of hitting $66 by year-end is 80%, and $80 is 46%, but if the whole market is this optimistic, be even more cautious. Some simple takeaways: Don’t go against institutions like a16z and Grayscale; their money votes louder than you think. Shorting on-chain is like broadcasting your underwear color to the whole network; your liquidation price is the bulls’ open-book exam answer. If the oracle hadn’t used 5x leverage, maybe they could have held on; leverage is an accelerator for mistakes. In bull markets, you make money on faith; in bear markets, you lose money on leverage. This truth never gets old. Do you think HYPE will surge to $80 or first retrace to $45? Battle it out in the comments; I bet your view is sharper than mine. $HYPE $BTC $ETH

Hester Peirce's last tweet before leaving was like slipping a note into her resignation letter: Don't make a fuss, the exemption I mentioned only allows you to put those few stocks from exchanges onto the blockchain, not to mess around with synthetic assets. It's touching, but cold water still needs to be poured. #"Crypto Mom" exits: SEC narrows tokenization exemption Once she left, the voice inside the SEC that dared to openly oppose "enforcement-style regulation" disappeared. Atkins is somewhat friendly, but without this hardliner, future meetings will probably be much more peaceful—and also much more boring. The crypto industry is now truly forced to be weaned off; some project teams must have already started to panic. As for whether the SEC will flip-flop, a major turnaround is unlikely, but there will definitely be a temperature difference. Previously, she led the crypto task force pushing the roadmap aggressively; now that she's gone, the work remains, and who takes over and their stance becomes especially critical. Right now, the commissioners barely have enough to form a quorum, and this vacuum period is scarier than any policy. The White House is eyeing Ammon Simon, and this guy's background basically determines whether the next phase will be a slow boil or continued laissez-faire. The compliance window is also opened quite artistically: The door is indeed cracked open. The SEC has been busy this year, officially recognizing tokenized securities as securities, approving Nasdaq's framework, and ensuring on-chain tokens have the same price and rights as traditional stocks. Q1 spot trading volume even reached 15.1 billion, money doesn't lie. But Peirce's tweet effectively slammed shut the backdoor for synthetic assets and bypassing issuers to freely mint other people's stocks. Bloomberg previously hyped that you could completely bypass listed companies, but now it seems that was wishful thinking. The idea of multiple rogue versions of the same stock appearing on-chain is basically off the table. I have mixed feelings about this—lack of rules causes chaos, but sometimes the wild paths fuel the next bull market. Now, the adult is gone and the toy chest is locked. So now we're in a patchwork stage: real asset tokenization has a path and must be climbed step by step; those wanting to shortcut have no chance. The crypto industry is like a kid who just lost training wheels—either they'll fall hard or suddenly ride smoothly, no one knows. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

🔥Breaking news! The Federal Reserve has officially changed leadership, and the crypto market is about to face a major shift Who would have thought the new head would be a hardcore hawk? Tonight’s late-night inauguration ceremony will directly influence the global flow of funds. Every time the Fed undergoes a personnel change, it triggers a chain reaction in the market📊 At 23:00 Beijing time on May 22, Kevin Walsh will take the oath of office. The ceremony is personally hosted by Trump, with a level of formality far beyond the usual procedures. This alone shows the significance of this personnel adjustment. Walsh is known for his tough stance, a solid representative of the hawkish camp. He consistently advocates for accelerating the reduction of the balance sheet and has a higher tolerance for inflation. Market expectations are already very clear✨ CME FedWatch data shows a 96.8% probability that the June FOMC meeting will keep rates unchanged Fed Governor Barkin has also publicly stated that the current monetary policy is overall prudent and in good shape. Facing the impact of oil price fluctuations, the U.S. has strong resilience. Long-term inflation trends remain firmly controlled within a reasonable range. Considering all signals, it’s easy to conclude there will be no drastic short-term monetary policy adjustments. But with a hawkish new chair in office, mid-to-long-term policy directions hold hidden uncertainties. Market funds and crypto trends will continue to fluctuate in line with policy rhythms. Everyone must closely watch the evening inauguration developments and prepare their strategies in advance. Do you think the market will rise or remain volatile after the new leader takes office? $BTC $ETH $HYPE

The whole network is in an uproar! The US-Iran negotiations have had multiple twists and turns in half a day, and oil prices are playing a heart-pounding game. Is the market about to change? Traders must have felt it—today's market is completely driven by the news. Without any warning, the US-Iran situation staged an extreme reversal drama in just half a day. Oil prices jumped up and down, with volatility maxed out, really testing patience 😵 The initial scoop, many must have seen it. Foreign media reported: Pakistan mediated, and the US and Iran have agreed on a final draft agreement. There was even a hint that an official announcement would be made within hours. Once the news broke, the market immediately sought safe havens. Oil prices plunged sharply in the short term, and many thought the situation had completely eased. But! The reversal came unexpectedly 🔥 The media source was directly refuted by officials. An Arab TV station publicly stated: The recent news about the negotiation agreement is pure fabricated fake news! With the false news exposed, market sentiment instantly warmed up. Oil prices quickly rebounded and surged, with WTI shooting up to $106 per barrel. Just when we thought the story ended there, a new bombshell came out at midnight! The US Secretary of State personally spoke, with an ambiguous attitude. Acknowledged progress in negotiations but did not guarantee an agreement would be reached. Here’s a key red line condition everyone must remember ⚠️ If Iran dares to implement a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, then this US-Iran diplomatic agreement will basically collapse completely. The situation instantly became tense again, with tensions running high. But that’s not all, Trump immediately issued a tough warning. Directly threatened: The US will take action to obtain or even destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium. In just one day, the news reversed multiple times. From easing → denial → back to tension, emotions were pulled back and forth. Those familiar with macroeconomics know that geopolitical turmoil never happens without reason. Oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, dragging the stock market and crypto market along. In the coming period, the market definitely won’t be calm. Friends holding positions, don’t hold heavy positions stubbornly, be sure to manage your risk well! Let’s discuss: Do you think the US-Iran negotiations will ultimately succeed? Will the market trend stronger with volatility or weaken? $BZ $CL $BTC

The market has completely changed! Crude oil surges, BTC legislation lands, HYPE squeezes shorts, Fed leadership changes—key points to watch tonight Today's market action is truly dramatic, with a chain of news hitting the market hard. Almost all major markets moved simultaneously, directly altering the short-term market rhythm. First, the biggest external variable: the US-Iran nuclear talks have been a rollercoaster. The market reversed three times in one day, repeatedly contradicting itself. Initially, Iranian media reported that both sides had finalized a draft agreement. Shortly after, an Arab TV station denied this claim. Finally, US Senator Rubio acknowledged progress in the talks, but firmly rejected the proposal to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz. This back-and-forth tug-of-war has sharply heightened geopolitical tensions. Stimulated by this news, WTI crude oil surged directly, hitting $106 intraday. Those who understand know that once oil prices keep rising, global liquidity and the crypto market will follow with increased volatility 🔥 Moving on from traditional markets, let's focus on two major bullish developments in our crypto space today. First, a truly high-level announcement. The ARMA bill has officially advanced the strategic BTC reserve into the legislative process. This is the first real step toward national reserves, not just empty rumors but solid legislative progress. In the mid to long term, this is one of the strongest endorsements for Bitcoin. Second, the recent dark horse HYPE has fully entered a strong rally. After 8 months, it hit a new all-time high at $61. This rally has crushed the biggest shorts, with major player loracle unable to withstand the pressure and forced to liquidate over 610,000 tokens. On the other side, a16z-associated whales have fully capitalized on this rally, holding 3.17 million tokens with unrealized gains reaching $33 million 💰 The strength between bulls and bears is now clearly reflected in the market. Finally, a crucial macro event to remind everyone about tonight. At 11 PM Beijing time, Waller will officially be sworn in as Fed Chair. The old era ends, and a new Fed leader takes charge. Future interest rate hikes, cuts, and liquidity policies will be reshuffled. Tonight's market is very unlikely to close quietly ✨ To be honest, today’s three major variables—crude oil, crypto, and the Fed—are converging. Whether you hold long or short positions, don’t blindly lie flat. Market turning points often happen on nights packed with such news. Feel free to discuss: Do you think the new Fed Chair tonight will lean hawkish or dovish? Is HYPE’s new high a sustained bull run or a short-term bull trap? $BTC $HYPE $BZ