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BofA Reiterates $NVDA at Buy, PT $320; ER Preview:
Analyst comments: "Nvidia reports post-close on Wednesday, May 20, and we expect the usual historical 2–4%/$2–$4 billion sales outperformance relative to current sell-side expectations. However, beyond headlines, we expect the focus to be on: 1) potential for enhanced cash returns; 2) Vera Rubin ramp timing (2H26E); 3) gross margin durability (~75% amid continued memory/other cost inflation); 4) update to the $1 trillion CY25–27 forecast, especially contribution from LPU racks, CPU, and Vera Rubin Ultra, which were not included before; and 5) competitive landscape changes against Google TPU, agentic CPU, and other ASICs. We maintain our Buy rating, top-pick designation, and $320 price objective on the company’s dominance in the fastest-growing tech market and its compelling valuation at <20x CY27E P/E, or only 0.4x PEG relative to 46%+ CY25–28E EPS CAGR.
As discussed in our recent note, NVDA’s large existing positioning — 8.3% of the S&P 500 Index and ~78% active fund manager ownership — often acts as a headwind. Other large-cap tech names in the same position have added incremental investors by boosting cash returns and appealing to dividend/income-oriented investors. NVDA hasn’t done this yet, with only 47% of free cash flow from CY22–25 allocated to dividends/buybacks versus peers returning around 80% of free cash flow. NVDA’s investments have instead been diverted to investing in the ecosystem — OpenAI, Anthropic, and tech partners — and have been unfairly, in our view, characterized as circular/vendor financing. Boosting shareholder returns could expand ownership, close NVDA’s valuation gap, and minimize circularity concerns, a second-half catalyst."
Analyst: Vivek Arya

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