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Goldman just scrapped all 2026 Fed rate cut expectations. Final two cuts pushed to June and December 2027. Hike probability raised from 10% to 20%.
What triggered it: May payrolls printed 172K vs. 85K expected. April was revised up to 179K. Unemployment held at 4.3%, wage growth at 3.4%. Every number pointed the wrong way.
Goldman's thesis: tariffs, high oil prices, and AI demand will keep core PCE above 3% all year. Even their confidence in the 2027 cuts dropped, from 40% probability to 30%. Goldman isn't alone. JPMorgan also shifted to a full hold through 2026, with its first potential hike penciled in for Q3 2027.
Market reaction:
· Gold fell below $4,320, -4% on the week, erasing all 2026 gains
· BTC dropped from ~$72,840 to near $64,100, down over 12%
· Spot BTC ETFs saw 13 straight days of net outflows totaling $4.4B, the longest streak since launch. BlackRock's IBIT lost $3.3B, Fidelity FBTC shed $456M
· CME now prices ~50% odds of at least one hike by year-end
· June hold probability: 97%
Trump called it: "no reason to raise rates." He also signaled he's leaving the October FOMC decision to incoming Fed Chair Warsh. The Treasury, meanwhile, plans to raise its General Account to ~$900B by June end and ~$1T by July, pulling additional liquidity from the system.
With a potential hike now on the table, how are you adjusting your crypto portfolio?
#GoldmanDelays2027Cuts
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