Re: Prediction Markets
The recent $POLY token claims have made me look significantly more into prediction markets and play around with them to ofc farm the airdrop. Here's my thoughts from a builder perspective and why I'm bullish towards the @Kalshi expansion on sui.
Pros:
- Building on top of a well known prediction market can give users a much better access to a wide variety of bets
- PMs often come with their own market makers built into the book with automated market settlement
- DoubleUp can easily build a frontend and new UX on top of the prediction market.
- Transparency about the bet liquidity and how much it takes to move the market
- Only on sui are the assets as compostable where if kalshi invests the time correctly we should be able to permissionlessly integrate and anyone can build apps on top of the PMs
Cons:
- YES/NO markets are easier to manipulate (i.e. armstrong listing out a bunch of words during the earnings calls)
- The profits from the sports book are given directly to the MMs who quote on the PM, rather than right now to DU.
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